Wednesday, December 19, 2007

The Monty Hall Puzzle

Here's a fun probability puzzle. This is called the Monty Hall Puzzle since its based off of an American Game Show, Let's make a deal.

Say you're in a game show where the host invites you to open one of 3 doors. One of the doors has a prize(a car) and the other 2 doors have goats. The host knows which door has the prize. After you pick a door, the host then opens one of the remaining 2doors which do not have the prize and reveals the goat. Now, he offers you the option of switching your choice from your current pick to the other remaining door.

The question is, what should you do?
A. Doesn't matter if you switch, the probability of winning is still the same
B. Always switch

2 comments:

Arjun said...

Remember we first encountered this in engg college. Our math prof (Thilaka) gave this problem to our juniors and there was so much fuss around it. Took a while to get the funda right that we need to always switch :)

Unknown said...

yup :)... good times..